COMPARISON OF ARIMA MODEL AND ANN MEASURES IN FORECASTING REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Authors

  • Gafur Namozov Doctoral student of Termez State University. Termez,

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55439/EIT/vol10_iss5/a29

Keywords:

GRP volume, ARIMA model, ANN model, Box-Jenkins method, Akaike information criterion, Schwartz information criterion, forecasting

Abstract

In this article, the process of modeling and forecasting the volume of the gross regional product of the Surkhandarya region was carried out. The forecasting efficiency of the ARIMA and ANN models is also compared. As a result, the best ARIMA model in forecasting is ARIMA (1, 0, 1)(0, 1, 0)4, and according to ANN, the model of the output neuron MLP (4-7-1) turned out to be the best. In addition, the volume of the gross regional product is predicted until 2025.

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Published

2022-10-31

How to Cite

Namozov , G. . (2022). COMPARISON OF ARIMA MODEL AND ANN MEASURES IN FORECASTING REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS. Economics and Innovative Technologies, 10(5), 267–276. https://doi.org/10.55439/EIT/vol10_iss5/a29

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 5 (2022): "Иқтисодиёт ва инновацион технологиялар"

Section

Иқтисодий-математик усуллар ва моделлар