BUXORO VILOYATIDA KICHIK BIZNES RIVOJLANISHI KO‘RSATKICHLARINI STATISTIK TAHLIL QILISH VA 2026–2030-YILLARGA ARIMA PROGNOZI

Nazar G‘ulom o‘g‘li Nazarov

doi:10.5281/zenodo.23690394

Авторы

Nazarov Nazar G‘ulom o‘g‘li Kadrlar malakasini oshirish va statistik tadqiqotlar instituti doktoranti, PhD https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2599-8769

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23690394

Аннотация

Maqolada Buxoro viloyatida kichik biznesning to‘qqizta asosiy ko‘rsatkichi 2010–2025-yillar bo‘yicha rasmiy ma’lumotlar asosida tahlil qilingan va 2026–2030-yillarga prognoz qilingan. Nominal ifodada ishlab chiqarish 48,1 marta oshgan, YaIM deflyatori bo‘y icha real o‘sish esa 6,0 martani tashkil etgan; bandlik 1,07 marta o‘zgargan. Kichik biznesning YaHMdagi ulushi 2018 -yildagi 81,9 foizdan 2025- yilda 71,0 foizgacha pasaygan. Modellar ADF/KPSS testlari, AICc/BIC, Ljung –Box testi va namunadan tashqari tekshiruv asosida tanlangan (o‘rtacha MAPE 15,5%). 2030 -yilga borib kichik biznes ulushi 71,0 foiz (58,5–83,5%), eksport 239,4 mln AQSh dollari, ishlab chiqarish va xizmatlar nominal ifodada 83,5 va 100,0 trln so‘m bo‘lishi baholangan.

Ключевые слова kichik biznesvaqt qatorlariARIMAADFKPSSdeflyatsiyaprognozlashMAPEBuxoro viloyati

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BUXORO VILOYATIDA KICHIK BIZNES RIVOJLANISHI KO‘RSATKICHLARINI STATISTIK TAHLIL QILISH VA 2026–2030-YILLARGA ARIMA PROGNOZI

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