ECONOMETRIC MODELING AND FORECASTING OF EXPORT OPERATIONS THROUGH FINANCING OF THE LOGISTICS SYSTEM BASED ON ARDL AND ARIMA MODELS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55439/EIT/vol11_iss2/i25Keywords:
National economy, logistics infrastructure, logistics system, financing, exports, inflation, exchange rate, investment, econometric analysis, econometric modeling, forecastingAbstract
the national economy, the role and importance of logistics services, as well as scientific and theoretical aspects of factors affecting export practices in the country.
Also, urgent problems associated with an increase in export practice through the financing of the logistics system were identified, and scientific proposals were developed aimed at solving them. The study presents the author's approaches and proposals.
References
Ўзбекистон Республикаси Президентининг 28.01.2022 йилдаги ПФ-60-сон “2022-2026 йилларга мўлжалланган янги Ўзбекистоннинг тараққиёт стратегияси” тўғрисидаги фармони.
Chou, C. C., Chu, C. W., & Liang, G. S. (2008). A modified regression model for forecasting the volumes of Taiwan's import containers. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 47(9), 797–807. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.mcm.2007.05.005
Yue, Y. (2010). An Econometric Estimation of Import Demand Function for Cote D'Ivoire. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(2), 77–84. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v5n2p77
Birol ERKAN “The Importance and Determinants of Logistics Performance of Selected Countries ” Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB) An Online International Monthly Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X) 2014
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, B. C. (2008). Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020. International journal of social economics, 35(12), 1005–1016. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290810911516
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, B. C. (2008). Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020. International journal of social economics, 35(12), 1005–1016. https://doi.org/10.1108/03068290810911516
Lin, S.-C. 2016. A fuzzy algorithm to evaluate competitive locations for international transport logistics system, Journal of Marine Science and Technology 24(2): 125–134. https://doi.org/10.6119/JMST-015-0511-4
Zhong, G. 2003, “Regional Logistics Role in Regional Economic Growth” Beijing University of Technology, Beijing
Philipp Wetzel, Erik Hofmann, Supply chain finance, financial constraints and corporate performance: An explorative network analysis and future research agenda, International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 216, 2019, Pages 364-383
Sharipbekova, K., and Zhanarys S. Raimbekov. "Influence of logistics efficiency on economic growth of the CIS countries." (2018).
Klein, M.; Gutowska, E.; Gutowski, P. Innovations in the T&L (Transport and Logistics) Sector during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sweden, Germany and Poland. Sustainability 2022, 14
Long Jinru, Zhong Changbiao, Bilal Ahmad, Muhammad Irfan & Rabia Nazir “How do green financing and green logistics affect the circular economy in the pandemic situation: key mediating role of sustainable production” Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Volume 35, 2022 - Issue 1
Kuzu S., Önder E. Research into the long-run relationship between logistics development and economic growth in Turkey //Journal of Logistics Management. – 2014. – Т. 3. – №. 1. – С. 11-16.
Hu K., Gan X., Gao K. Co-integration model of logistics infrastructure investment and regional economic growth in central China //ICLEM 2010: Logistics For Sustained Economic Development: Infrastructure, Information, Integration. – 2010. – С. 1259-1265.
J.E. Davidson, H. David, F. Hendry, F. Srba, and S. Yeo, Econometric Modeling of the Aggregate Time Series Relationship Between Consumers’ Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom, Economic Journal, 88, (1978), 661–692.
https://ideas.repec.org/p/boc/usug18/09.html
Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
Ghouse, Ghulam and Khan, Saud Ahmed and Rehman, Atiq Ur “ ARDL model as a remedy for spurious regression: problems, performance and prospectus” MPRA Paper No. 83973, posted 19 Jan 2018
Davidson, J. E., Hendry, D. F., Srba, F., & Yeo, S. (1978). Econometric modelling of the aggregate time-series relationship between consumers' expenditure and income in the United Kingdom. The Economic Journal, 661-692
Charemza, W. W., & Deadman, D. F. (1997). New directions in econometric practice. Books.
Pesaran, M. H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0. Camfit Data Ltd., Cambridge.
Stockton, D., and J. Glassman, 1987. “An Evaluation of the Forecast Performance ofAlternative Models of Inflation”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 69, No. 1,February, pp. 108-117
Box, G. and G. Jenkins, 1976. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control,Holden Day: San Francisco.
Махмудов, С. "ОЦЕНКА ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОГО АНАЛИЗА ЭКСПОРТНО-ИМПОРТНЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ В НАЦИОНАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ НА ОСНОВЕ МОДЕЛЕЙ VAR, ARDL И ARIMA." Экономика и образование 23.3 (2022): 184-197.
Абдулазизова Ў. Development of competition in the financial services market of Uzbekistan //Journal of Management Value & Ethics (India), Special issue. Sept.-Oct. 21 Vol. 11 No. 04 SJIF 7.201 & GIF 0.626. ISSN-2249-9512.–P. 139-144. – 2021
Махмудов, С. "Роль системы логистики в развитии экспорта страны." Экономика и образование 23 (2022): 504-519.
